Lennon Ó'Náraigh (University College Dublin)

will speak on

An elimination strategy for COVID-19 is the cheapest option

Time: 3:00PM
Date: Wed 30th September 2020
Location: Online [map]

Further information

Abstract: We formulate an optimal-control problem for the control of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Ireland. The model equations are a standard multi-compartment SEIR model. Using standard techniques, we fit the model to the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland (March-May 2020). We then look at counterfactual scenarios, with a view to controlling the epidemic in the optimal way. The controls correspond to reductions in social contacts. At the same time, we impose state constraints on the model, which correspond to keeping ICU admissions below a threshold. The controls carry an economic cost: we seek to minimize this cost while satisfying the state constraints. This is a difficult problem to solve analytically, so we resort to a range of numerical optimization techniques. The computed solutions of the resulting optimization problem show that the cheapest strategy is elimination, rather than 'living with the virus'.

Meeting ID: 933 1387 1404
Passcode: 040190

(This talk is part of the Applied and Computational Mathematics series.)

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